The Big Game. Every year, millions of people in the United States sit down on a Sunday in February and watch the NFL Super Bowl. Hate it or love it, it’s become a tradition for many Americans.
This year is no different, as the Kansas City Chiefs face off against the Philadelphia Eagles in New Orleans, at the Caesars Superdrome. The second championship matchup between these franchises in three years, the Eagles are on a revenge tour, and the Chiefs are chasing history with a 3-peat.
Statistics to know
Out of 58 super bowls, the team that scored first has won 38 times, which translates to about a winning percentage of 66%.
The Chiefs have historically been offensive juggernauts, however these last two years the offensive train has been slowing down. The Chief’s plus-59 point differential during the regular season would be the fifth-lowest by a Super Bowl champion should they pull out the win.
The Chiefs keep finding ways to win. They went 12-0 in one-score games this season.
How do they keep getting away with it? The Chiefs stand in an interesting position.
Their 3rd down and 4th down conversion percentages are some of the highest in the league at 48.19% (3rd) and 70.00% (4th) respectively. Yet, their Red Zone Scoring Percentage is below league average at 53.95 % (22nd). The Chiefs consistently find ways to extend drives, but fail to convert on these extended drives.
Their defense is all over the place in terms of efficiency. When it comes to third downs, the Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the league, allowing opponents to convert on third downs 43.9 percent of the time, good for 28th in the NFL.
But, when it comes to fourth down conversions the defense is more stout, only allowing opponents to convert on 53.3 percent of fourth downs. This has them at almost mid table, placing 12th.
Even better, they rank 10th in opponent red zone scoring percentage at 53.33%.
What do these statistics tell us about the Chiefs? They tell us that the Chiefs are in disarray.
They’ve gone undefeated in one score games, but they cannot and will not be able to win the Super Bowl playing as these statistics describe, especially against a team like the Eagles.
There is a silver lining though. The Eagles offense largely revolves around Saquon Barkley. The 27 year old running back is fresh off being named a finalist for Most Valuable Player and Offensive Player of the Year, and has been on a rampage this season, racking up over 2,000 rushing yards.
However, the Chiefs defense has been strong against the rush this season. They’ve allowed opponents 4.2 yards per rush and 106.7 rushing yards per game. Both stats place the Chiefs 9th place in the league.
Looking at the Eagles though, they rank fourth in the National Football League for yards per rush, averaging 5.1 yards. The Eagles offense is catered to Saquon Barkely. The Eagles are especially dangerous on fourth downs, placing third in the league with a 73.33% conversion rate.
This will be a game won in the trenches. The Chiefs run defense, although good, must be great. The eagles must continue putting up over 5 yards per carry, and when push comes to shove, convert on the fourth downs.
Defensively, the Eagles do a great job on third downs, only allowing 36.97% of thirds to be converted, which ranks them 9th. This is not the same story for fourth downs, though. The Eagles allow fourth downs to be converted 62.50% of the time, good for 23rd in the league.
The Chiefs shouldn’t be afraid of going on fourth down, especially since the Chiefs are in the top 5 of converting on fourth downs, as mentioned earlier.
The last important stat to know for the eagles defense is that they’ve allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 48.28% of Red Zone trips, placing them 5th in the NFL. This means the Chiefs will have their work cut out for them, as they’ve struggled immensely when it comes to converting red zone trips into touchdowns.
Matchups to watch:
Chris Jones vs. Eagles O-Line.
This game will be about the trenches for the Eagles offense and Chiefs defense. For Saquon Barkley and the Eagles to succeed on offense, it begins with the Eagles Offensive line.
This season, their O-Line has been ranked #1 by PFF and Mailata’s 96.9 PFF overall grade led all offensive linemen this season.
Their work will be cut out for them as they face defensive lineman Chris Jones. Jones has been one of the best d-linemen this season, with a PFF Overall Grade of 89.7, good for third out of 219 d-linemen.
Jone’s ability to pressure the Qb is second to just one other defensive lineman, as he totaled 74 pressures this season. Although this doesn’t directly translate to battling the O-Line in the rush game, it is important because pressuring the QB mean’s he’s getting past the line of scrimmage, and this will wreak havoc regardless of whether it’s a run play or a pass.
On top of this, if the Chiefs puts the Eagles in a position to pass, Chris Jones’s pass rush grade is ranked first in the NFL, with a score of 91.0.
This matchup will be key for both teams if they want to win the Super Bowl. The Eagles O-Line must continue being elite, even in the face of one of the best D-Lineman in the NFL, to establish the run game for Barkley, and dictate the game.
The Chiefs will have to rely on Chris Jones to disrupt the run game, putting the Eagles in passing positions, where Jones can run rampant. Keep your eyes out for this matchup during the game, it should be a battle.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Vic Fangio
If Patrick Mahomes wins the Super Bowl for the third year in a row, his legacy will be cemented in history as one of, if not the Greatest Of All Time. But there’s one person who’s been tasked with beating Mahomes, Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio.
In his first season as the Eagles Defensive Coordinator, Fangio has transformed the Eagles defense from being rank 26th in 2023 by Fox Sports, to being ranked first in 2024. The Eagles allowed 17 less touchdowns this season, and have allowed the third least touchdowns (33) in the NFL this season.
Patrick Mahomes has faced Vic Fangio and his play style eight times in his career. In those eight games, Mahomes is 8-0, and has scored 10 touchdowns to 2 interceptions.
Each time Mahomes succeeded by targeting the weak spots of the defense: throwing up the seams and over the middle.
This is because Fangio prefers playing without defenders in the middle of the field pre-snap. He does this to force the QB to make decisions post-snap as Fangio often switches coverages post-snap, making the QB have to redo his reads. This attempt is aimed at making the QB hold the ball for longer, allowing the d-line or linebackers to make plays.
Mahomes so far has been able to beat this coverage, and Fangio’s playstyle, but, Fangio now has weapons that in past matchups were only in his dreams. Fangio’s defense this year has been second to none. Perhaps with better defensive players, Fangio can get the better of Mahomes this time.
Another important thing to note is that Fangio has his defense line up with two deep safeties. This paired with keeping the middle of the field open pre-snap forces even the best QBs to think after the snap. This will be important to watch during the game, to see how Mahomes reacts to the changes in coverage, and whether he can make the right reads post-snap.
Gameplan:
Score First.
The team who scores first in the Super Bowl has won 66% of the time. This game will be no different. If either team wants to win, they must control the game flow. This means scoring early, and scoring first.
If the Chiefs can score first, this puts the eagles in a position where they must pass more, to keep up with the Chiefs. When this happens, the Eagles are put in a position where Chris Jones can wreak havoc. The more points the Chiefs can put up between them and the Eagles, the more they force the Eagles to get uncomfortable and start passing.
For the Eagles, if they score early and first, this allows them to lean even more on the run game. They will be able to drain more time off the clock, and force the Chiefs to make passing plays. This is a problem for the Chiefs as Mahomes has been pressured on 24% of throws, 6th highest in the league.
Scoring first allows the respective team to control flow and pace of the game, a massive luxury in any game, regardless of whether it’s the Super Bowl or not.
For the Chiefs:
PROTECT Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain in December, and although he’s played through it, the Eagles defense will not go easy on him because of it. Chief’s O-Line must give Mahomes time to make the correct reads, or to escape the pocket.
For the Eagles:
Feed Saquon Barkley the ball. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Barkley has had his best season yet, and if the Eagles want to win, Barkley can lead them there. His potential for big explosive plays will keep the Chief’s defense aware at all times, if not they will pay the price, as the Commanders did, who let Barkley score a 60 yard touchdown on the first play for the Eagles offense.
To do this means the O-Line has to bring their A-Game. The main area of concern here is Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson’s health. They are instrumental to the O-Line, and if one, or both players are out for the Super Bowl, this can affect the eagles offense entirely, especially when facing an X-factor player such as Chris Jones.
Limiting Scrambling:
Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts are two of the best QBs in the NFL. What sets them apart? Their ability to extend plays. This year, the Chiefs averaged 8.8 yards per scramble, 8th in the NFL, for 38 scrambles (2.24 per game). The Eagles averaged 9.0 yards per scramble, 5th in the NFL, for 42 scrambles (2.47 scrambles per game).
This means that these players are keeping their offenses on the field through their legs. If either team wants to win, they must limit the scrambling. Both players averaged almost a first down per scramble, so limiting a scramble may be the difference between fourth down and first down.
Predictions
Who wins? Is it the Chiefs, achieving what has not been done ever before? Or is it the Eagles, hungry for revenge for the way their last Super Bowl ended?
Although the Chiefs did not lose a single game that was a one score game, their luck will eventually run out. And the Super Bowl will be that game. Even though Icarus eventually had to fall back to earth, the Chiefs are no different.
They’ve had a great run, but to win against the Eagles it will require more of the Chiefs, they won’t be able to get away with game-winning missed field goals or game-winning fumbles. The Eagles have been the most complete team this season, and will be the case in the Super Bowl as well.
My prediction: Eagles 28-Chiefs 20.
That leaves Super Bowl MVP. The Eagles will win because of their O-Line, who will allow Saquon Barkley to do what he’s done all season, make winning plays, ultimately winning Super Bowl MVP.
There you have it, a comprehensive list of all the statistics to keep in mind for the Big Game, the matchups to watch that will make the game must-see TV, and dictate the game, as well as Gameplans, and finally, predictions for the Super Bowl. In the words of Shannon Sharpe, “There’s no other game like the Super Bowl.”
