The 2025 NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball tournament is here. The complete 68-team bracket was released Sunday evening, with countless hopefuls filling out brackets over the next 72 hours with the ambition of being the first to pick a perfect bracket. Ever.

The chances of you picking a perfect bracket are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (if you just guess or flip a coin) or 1 in 120.2 billion (if you know a little something about basketball). But as Lloyd Christmas would say, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!?”

Technically, yes. But, to give you the best odds at creating a perfect bracket, there are some important statistics you must know, and teams to watch out for.

First, since 1999, 18 of the tournament’s 25 champions have been a No. 1 seed. Even more, 32 of the last 35 champs were a 1, 2, or 3-seed. And of those three champs who weren’t, UCONN was two of them. Likely speaking, this trend will continue, and our champion this year will be a 1,2,3-seed … or UCONN.  

KenPom, which uses data and statistics that measure adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo, luck and strength of schedule to rank teams, has been an impressive predictor of national champions. Every champion since the 2002 NCAA Tournament has had an offense ranked inside the Top 40 on the KenPom rankings and a defense inside the Top 25, a trend that continued last year with UConn (1st offensively/4th defensively).

Even more specifically, all but two teams since 2002 have won the March Madness tournament without being a top 20 team in both adjusted offensive rating and adjusted defensive rating, according to KenPom. The teams that qualify for this: Florida (1st offensively/10th defensively), Auburn (2nd/12th), Duke (3rd/4th), Houston (10th/2nd), Tennessee (18th/3rd), and Iowa State (20th/9th). 

Your 2025 march madness champion will likely be one of these six teams. But, if we were to expand it to Top 40 offensively and top 25 defensively, the list increases to 11 teams, with Clemson (24th/16th), Michigan State (27th/5th), Maryland (28th, 6th), Louisville (29th/21st), and Mississippi (31st/25th) joining the potential champions list.

You should still look for your champion to be one of those first six teams mentioned, but the other 5 teams also have a shot, just remember that only two teams in the last twenty years have been below the 20/20 club. Still, these teams should definitely be in the Final Four consideration. 

Importantly, major teams that don’t fit this criteria include: Alabama (4th/32nd), St. Johns (65th/1st), Missouri (5th/73rd), Texas Tech (6th/37th), and Texas A&M (44th/7th, among other teams. Be weary when picking these teams to win it all, as the statistics are not on their side. 

The Glass Slipper Test

Kenpom is a great tool to use when deciding your national champion, but what about upsets and Cinderella teams? Who’s flying under the radar?

I created a method to pick upsets and sleeper picks, which I used to correctly pick San Diego State to make the final two years ago. I call it The Glass Slipper Test. It includes three factors. 1: high Three-point field goal percentage. 2: The team reaches the free throw line often and has a high field goal percentage. And 3: depth/experience.

If a team meets these criteria, then the Glass Slipper fits, and the team should be one to watch in the tournament. Below are three teams that I believe either strongly fit these models, or don’t fit at all, and are must avoid picks in your bracket:

Drake

A team that has been picked as a potential Cinderella story this year is Drake. Taking a look at the three traits, the glass slipper does not fit. Drake is ranked 338 in 3-pointers attempted per game (18.3 per game) out of 364 Division 1 basketball teams. Since Stephen Curry and his Davidson Cinderella run in 2008, the three-pointer has been a consistent characteristic of Cinderella teams.

But Drake is in the bottom 10% of three pointers attempted per game. On top of this, Drake converts on 35.6% of 3-pointers attempted, good for 88th in the country. Doing some math, of the 18.3 threes taken per game, only 6.5 are falling. To put this in perspective, Curry and Davidson College were making almost 9 threes per game.

It will be hard for Drake to compete with a team like Missouri who scores at ease, if they can’t shoot or convert threes. It is important to mention that San Diego State had a similar three point field goal percentage, but this is where the Fairy Godmother comes in. If a team’s defensive efficiency is in the top 20, it will make up for one of the two offensive stats of The Glass Slipper Test.

Unfortunately for Drake, their defensive efficiency ranks 46th. So the Fairy Godmother does not step in. Moving to  free-throw data, Drake is averaging 21.4 free-throw attempts per game, good for 63rd in the country. That’s …okay. But not good enough. Even more so, they are ranked 238th in the country for free-throw field goal percentage, only converting on 70% of their shots.

This equates to about 15 points from free-throws per game. If they can’t convert on free-throws, and can’t rely on their threes, and can’t defend at the top level, I can’t be confident enough in them to count them as a Cinderella potential team. Especially when they’re facing Missouri, with one of the best offenses in the nation.

We’ve seen they can compete with the best of the best, beating Alabama and Florida this year. The last factor, depth/experience, Drake somewhat meets. When it comes to experience in the NCAA tournament, they don’t have much. Almost the entire team are transfers from Northwest Missouri State University alongside head coach Ben McCollum.

McCollum is a good coach, likely on his way to a power-five conference, and the players know very well how to play under him, but I can’t get past the lack of Division 1 experience. Unfortunately for Drake, they are not Cinderella, nor do they have a Fairy Godmother and the glass slipper does not fit.

Michigan State

Technically Michigan State is a two-seed, so they’re not a Cinderella team, but, the Glass Slipper Test doesn’t just pertain for mid-major teams. For me, Michigan State has a striking resemblance to the San Diego State team that went to the finals two years ago. The fairy godmother steps in from the bat, because MSU struggles from deep, ranking 315th, with 19.4 threes attempted per game, and knocking just 6 of them.

However, similar to San Diego State (5th), their defensive efficiency is one of the best in the country, coming in at 4th. This is the fairy godmother. Looking at free-throw percentages, MSU ranks 20th, knocking down 78.4% of attempted free-throws, attempting over 22 per game, good for 34th in the country. This makes up for their lackluster three-point shooting.

Most importantly, Michigan State has depth, and experience. They have veteran guards in Akins and Holloman, as well as freshman sensation Jase Richardson. Even more so, they have 10 players averaging at least 15 minutes a game. Now obviously the rotation will be shortened during the tournament, but, similar to San Diego State, MSU has the ability to keep their players fresh while still being competitive with their bench players, something that will be crucial in later games.

On top of this, if a player is having a cold-night from shooting, they have the depth to put in another play to fill in for the off-day shooter. Same goes for foul trouble. This is extremely important during March. Lastly, there’s a reason why March is often referred to as Izzo. Because Tom Izzo is arguably the best coach in all of college basketball, and with over 25 years of experience under his belt, the Spartans are going to be extremely dangerous. The Glass Slipper fits, watch out for the Michigan State Spartans. 

Gonzaga

It’s crazy to think that Gonzaga could ever be considered a Cinderella team, especially with the dominance they’ve shown in recent years. Here’s the thing though, they shouldn’t be a Cinderella team. They’re Kenpom rankings are 9th offensively, and 29th defensively, as an 8-seed in the tournament.

They’re a team that has gone under the radar the entire year, and the team I’m most looking forward to watching this year. I mentioned they are an 8-seed, they shouldn’t be. Data statistician Evan Miyakawa has Gonzaga “underseeded”, meaning they are stronger than other teams on the same seed.

These teams advance 59% of the time. (Other teams include: Maryland, Kansas, and Colorado State). Now, looking at the criteria of the The Glass Slipper Test, Gonzaga fits the bill. 

The Zags down 7.3 three per game, attempting 21.3. This is comparable to San Diego State (7.7 threes on 22.1 attempts), who shot more but not as accurately as the Zags, but were still able to when needed. This is important because Gonzaga’s offensive efficiency as mentioned earlier is top 10, meaning their offense doesn’t rely solely on threes, but if they need to, they can shoot the three. 

Perhaps their most questionable point is free throw shooting. The Zags average 19.6 free throws per game. BUT, unlike Drake, they convert on 80.09% of free throws, good for third best in the country. This means Gonzaga scores almost 16 points per game from free throws.

These stats are slightly better than San Diego State’s. Their strongest point is their experience. Not only is Mark Few one of the best coaches in College Basketball, but the squad is full of returning players from last season, bringing back 81.4% of their returning minutes from the previous year, ranking fifth in the country for that metric.

The Fairy Godmother doesn’t come into play for Gonzaga because their defense is ranked 29th, but I’d argue there’s not a need for it in the first place, they have the experience, they knock down free-throws better than any almost any other team in the country, and they’re competitive from three. The Glass Slipper fits, look out for Gonzaga. 

March Madness is unpredictable. The best we can do is research as much as we can, and trust our gut. As they say, “Let the Madness begin!”